Who Wants To Be #1?
Two seasons ago in the NCAA, there was no doubt that there was a fight for the top spot in the Top 25 rankings. It was a fight that teams wanted to win. Two undefeated teams, two solid one loss teams, and one two loss team with a legendary coach and a well built team. In fact the highest ranked team with three or more losses was at No. 7.
This season, the highest ranked team in the NCAA has three losses (likely four or more within the next week and a half) and four of the top ten have five losses. Some analysts have called this "the year where no one wants to win." March Madness lovers are wondering what is going to happen come Selection Sunday (March 13) and throughout the tournament. I, of course, will be spending an extreme amount of time studying the teams as I fill out my bracket but here is what I expect to see during the remainder of the regular season.
Villanova
The (currently) No. 1 ranked Wildcats will not end the regular season raked No. 1. The next three games will tell a lot about this Villanova team. Butler, Xavier, and Marquette have all been known in recent years to be surprising. Butler, with two big tournament runs including a very close championship game where their opponent squeaked out a victory, is the most efficient offense in the Big East. Xavier is ranked in the Top Ten. And Marquette could take the opportunity and beat a worn out Wildcat team...if Villanova makes it through the first two big games cleanly. I expect at least one loss in the next three games.
UNC and Oklahoma
Due to major losses this week to Duke (UNC) and Kansas (OU) There is no way that either the Tar Heels or the Sooners can end up on top. Oklahoma cannot pass the Jayhawk foes because of the recent loss but today's contest against the Mountaineers of West Virginia could do the Sooners in. UNC (with five losses) also do not have a clear path to the No. 1 ranking. It is doubtful that a five-loss team will end up on top unless serious misfortune happens to the teams ahead of them. The Tar Heels are ranked 143rd in points allowed (that's not good) whereas two of their last five matchups are raked 2nd (Virgina) and 37th (Miami) in the same category and as I have previously said, DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.
Maryland and Virginia
The Terrapins and the Cavaliers are good teams. There is no doubt about that. It is very possible to see these two teams as two of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. You will not, however, see either of them as the No. 1 team at the end of the regular season. These are cases of "too little, too late." Maryland has a relatively clear path the rest of the season but back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota put them at a disadvantage. As for Virginia, they might have a chance if they can pull off wins against Duke and Louisville but the fact that all of their losses came to unranked opponents does not look good on their resume and will keep them out of that No. 1 ranking for the regular season.
Kansas
Though not back-to-back, the Kansas Jayhawks also has three big games remaining on their regular season schedule. Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State are all ranked in the Top 25 and are all very dangerous. I expect a win versus Baylor and close games against Texas and Iowa State. If Kansas falls, it will be to Iowa State in the final game of the regular season. I don't see that happening. Barring misfortune, Kansas will end the season as the No. 1 team in the nation.
This season, the highest ranked team in the NCAA has three losses (likely four or more within the next week and a half) and four of the top ten have five losses. Some analysts have called this "the year where no one wants to win." March Madness lovers are wondering what is going to happen come Selection Sunday (March 13) and throughout the tournament. I, of course, will be spending an extreme amount of time studying the teams as I fill out my bracket but here is what I expect to see during the remainder of the regular season.
Villanova
The (currently) No. 1 ranked Wildcats will not end the regular season raked No. 1. The next three games will tell a lot about this Villanova team. Butler, Xavier, and Marquette have all been known in recent years to be surprising. Butler, with two big tournament runs including a very close championship game where their opponent squeaked out a victory, is the most efficient offense in the Big East. Xavier is ranked in the Top Ten. And Marquette could take the opportunity and beat a worn out Wildcat team...if Villanova makes it through the first two big games cleanly. I expect at least one loss in the next three games.
UNC and Oklahoma
Due to major losses this week to Duke (UNC) and Kansas (OU) There is no way that either the Tar Heels or the Sooners can end up on top. Oklahoma cannot pass the Jayhawk foes because of the recent loss but today's contest against the Mountaineers of West Virginia could do the Sooners in. UNC (with five losses) also do not have a clear path to the No. 1 ranking. It is doubtful that a five-loss team will end up on top unless serious misfortune happens to the teams ahead of them. The Tar Heels are ranked 143rd in points allowed (that's not good) whereas two of their last five matchups are raked 2nd (Virgina) and 37th (Miami) in the same category and as I have previously said, DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.
Maryland and Virginia
The Terrapins and the Cavaliers are good teams. There is no doubt about that. It is very possible to see these two teams as two of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. You will not, however, see either of them as the No. 1 team at the end of the regular season. These are cases of "too little, too late." Maryland has a relatively clear path the rest of the season but back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota put them at a disadvantage. As for Virginia, they might have a chance if they can pull off wins against Duke and Louisville but the fact that all of their losses came to unranked opponents does not look good on their resume and will keep them out of that No. 1 ranking for the regular season.
Kansas
Though not back-to-back, the Kansas Jayhawks also has three big games remaining on their regular season schedule. Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State are all ranked in the Top 25 and are all very dangerous. I expect a win versus Baylor and close games against Texas and Iowa State. If Kansas falls, it will be to Iowa State in the final game of the regular season. I don't see that happening. Barring misfortune, Kansas will end the season as the No. 1 team in the nation.
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