March Madness: All About 2 Stats
We've all heard the phrase "offense wins games, defense wins championships." If you haven't, then you haven't been following my posts very closely because this is a mantra that I use frequently...and it's usually correct. Statistics, however, seem not to apply to the March Madness tournament when teams defy odds and come out of nowhere to win games and bust brackets.
But here is where I have a theory...
To look at an offense as a whole or a defense as a whole is worthless when picking winners in the NCAA tournament but there are two statistics that can help you as you pick winners over the next few weeks of madness.
1. Rebounds
A defensive rebound gives one team possession of the ball without the other team scoring. An offensive rebound gives a team a second chance at scoring or a second possession. The law of percentages states that if you have more possessions you should have more points. Rebounding is all about increasing the amount of possessions. If both teams have the same field goal percentage, then the team that took the most shots, or has the most possessions, will win the game.
That seems like a lot of common sense mumbo jumbo but does it work out in history?
Looking at strictly national championship games, 3 of the last 5 winners all won the rebound battle with a fourth that only lost the rebound battle by 2 rebounds. The only team to outright lose the rebound battle but win the championship was the 2016 Villanova Wildcats, the miracle win. The game was close, and statistically speaking, the reason for the win was field goal percentage. Although the North Carolina Tar Heels won in rebounds, they shot only 43%, being out done by Villanova's 58%. With that difference, rebounds seem to not matter.
Okay, okay, so I have now personally exposed a flaw in my own reasoning but it really is the outlier and not the norm. How about another stat for you to look at ?
2. Turnovers
As opposed to almost every other stat, the lowest number wins here. The team that turns the ball over the least should have more possessions with a shot which leads us back to a win if the field goal percentage is there.
Again, 3 of the last 5 champions won their championship game with a smaller amount of turnovers. A fourth game had a tie in the turnover column. The only winner with more turnovers than their opponent was the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats. Again, their win can be contributed to a difference in field goal percentage. Kentucky shot 41% while Kansas was at 35.5%.
BONUS: Field Goal %
So I have been holding field goal percentage as a constant when really, it seems like that makes as big of a difference as any other stat...if not more. 4 of the last 5 national champions had a higher field goal percentage than their opponent. The only exception is the 2013 Louisville Cardinals. The difference here is that Louisville topped Michigan in both rebounds and turnovers
There it is.
As you are filling out your bracket this year, those are the only things you will need to look at. Statistically, this should give you a 60-80% win percentage which is quite good in the grand scheme of things.
But here is where I have a theory...
To look at an offense as a whole or a defense as a whole is worthless when picking winners in the NCAA tournament but there are two statistics that can help you as you pick winners over the next few weeks of madness.
1. Rebounds
A defensive rebound gives one team possession of the ball without the other team scoring. An offensive rebound gives a team a second chance at scoring or a second possession. The law of percentages states that if you have more possessions you should have more points. Rebounding is all about increasing the amount of possessions. If both teams have the same field goal percentage, then the team that took the most shots, or has the most possessions, will win the game.
That seems like a lot of common sense mumbo jumbo but does it work out in history?
Looking at strictly national championship games, 3 of the last 5 winners all won the rebound battle with a fourth that only lost the rebound battle by 2 rebounds. The only team to outright lose the rebound battle but win the championship was the 2016 Villanova Wildcats, the miracle win. The game was close, and statistically speaking, the reason for the win was field goal percentage. Although the North Carolina Tar Heels won in rebounds, they shot only 43%, being out done by Villanova's 58%. With that difference, rebounds seem to not matter.
Okay, okay, so I have now personally exposed a flaw in my own reasoning but it really is the outlier and not the norm. How about another stat for you to look at ?
2. Turnovers
As opposed to almost every other stat, the lowest number wins here. The team that turns the ball over the least should have more possessions with a shot which leads us back to a win if the field goal percentage is there.
Again, 3 of the last 5 champions won their championship game with a smaller amount of turnovers. A fourth game had a tie in the turnover column. The only winner with more turnovers than their opponent was the 2012 Kentucky Wildcats. Again, their win can be contributed to a difference in field goal percentage. Kentucky shot 41% while Kansas was at 35.5%.
BONUS: Field Goal %
So I have been holding field goal percentage as a constant when really, it seems like that makes as big of a difference as any other stat...if not more. 4 of the last 5 national champions had a higher field goal percentage than their opponent. The only exception is the 2013 Louisville Cardinals. The difference here is that Louisville topped Michigan in both rebounds and turnovers
There it is.
As you are filling out your bracket this year, those are the only things you will need to look at. Statistically, this should give you a 60-80% win percentage which is quite good in the grand scheme of things.
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